“Paul is the strongest candidate with independents, tying Obama with them while the rest of the GOP field trails by 6-15 points.”
LAKE JACKSON, Texas – 2012 Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul polls better against President Barack Obama in a head-to-head matchup than establishment-choice moderate Mitt Romney, according to a recent survey conducted by Public Policy Polling.
The poll found that Obama defeats Romney by 4 percentage points (48-44) and Newt Gingrich by 8 percent (50-42). While Santorum also joins Paul being within striking distance of the President by 3 points (48-45 and 46-43 respectively), Paul brings Obama a noticeable 2 percentage points further away from the 50 percent a candidate seeks to win on election day. Considering the +/- 3.3-percentage point margin of error, Paul in this poll is statistically tied for the presidency.
Reinforcing the electability case for Paul is that he ties Obama among independent voters, while Romney loses the largest voting segment by 6 percent, Santorum by 8 percent, and Gingrich by 15 percent – a cause for concern whether Paul’s three rivals would even be competitive come November.
While many polls have shown Paul to be the most competitive Romney alternative, it also shows Paul to be making substantial progress and momentum for a general election bid. The new poll reveals that Paul is narrowing the gap between himself and Obama by 5 percentage points since last month’s PPP poll.
Other notables are that among one of the fastest growing voter segments, the Hispanic vote, Paul takes a full third of the Hispanic vote against the sitting President, with no other candidate able to come within 5 points of Paul’s Hispanic support.
Among the largest voter segment, self-identified independents, Paul is viewed favorably by 41 percent, whereas Romney and Santorum are relegated to a melancholy 29 percent and Gingrich further behind with a mere 24 percent favorability. These favorability numbers among independents translate into a clear Election Day advantage unique to Paul, where he would tie President Obama 42 to 42 for their votes.
Young voters, those 18 to 29 years in this poll, have long been considered to be in the President’s court. Yet, in a Paul-Obama matchup, these voters leave Obama and comparatively flock to Paul, backing him with a hefty 40 percent of their support. The range of youth support for Paul’s three competitors in a head-to-head with Obama ranges 22 to 29 percent, meaning about half of Paul’s margin to weak at best.
“The media may find an inevitability about Romney becoming nominee, but it is clear that with anyone other than Ron Paul as nominee a second term for Obama is the inevitability,” said Ron Paul 2012 National Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton.
“When polls say ‘Romney is actually not the most electable Republican candidate,’ voters should flock to the candidate who can defeat Obama by winning on true conservative principle. That man is Ron Paul,” added Mr. Benton.
The PPP poll is based on telephone surveys of 900 voters and has a +/- 3.3-percentage point error margin.