Monday, January 16, 2012

Ron Paul Tied with Obama and in Two-Man Race with Romney

Poll highlights include Paul having notably strong support across many key voter segments

LAKE JACKSON, Texas – 2012 Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul again polls strong against incumbent President Barack Obama in a general election matchup, according to today’s CNN/ORC Poll.

Highlights include Paul besting Obama 49 to 45 percent among persons 65 and older, a voter segment considered to be the most reliable for turnout.  Paul also beats Obama among persons 50 to 64 by a 47 to 45 percent margin.  Taken together, according to the poll, voters over 50 deliver Paul a clean 48 to 45 percent win over Obama.

When factoring geography and racial background, Paul also carries substantial numbers.

Versus Obama, Paul defeats him 51 to 45 percent in the Midwest, 49 to 45 percent in the South, 61 to 35 percent in rural areas, and ties him at 47 percent in suburban areas.  Paul also bests all other Republican candidates among nonwhite voters when matched against Obama, again carrying a solid quarter of those votes, and defeating Obama among white voters 54 to 41 percent, and men 49 to 44 percent.

Among many segments, the numbers of other Republican hopefuls is paltry to Paul’s performance.

CNN’s Political Unit states, “…according to the poll, the president is doing better against two other presidential candidates.  If Rick Santorum were the GOP nominee, Obama would hold a 51%-45% advantage over the former senator from Pennsylvania.  And if Newt Gingrich faced off against the president, Obama would lead the former House speaker 52-43%.”

The hits keep coming.

Among men, Paul garners more support in the general by a larger margin over Obama than any other candidate.  He undercuts Obama’s support among youth the most, winning 40 percent of the 18-34 vote, with Paul’s nearest competitor Romney coming no closer than 35 percent.  Paul also garners more from those under 50 than any other Republican.  Paul is also at the top – tying Romney – among persons ages 35 to 49.

Perhaps most important in the race for the White House, Paul seizes more support from independents than any other Republican, matching or defeating Obama 46 to 48 percent vis a vis the +/- 5 percent error margin.

Also notable in the survey is that 53 percent of the sample believe that Romney does not “generally agree” with them on issues they care about, and 56 percent feel that Romney is not in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives.

“This poll, as with all the other general election matchup polls, debunks the misconceptions about Ron Paul’s electability.  His competitiveness against Obama is far beyond all but one competitor, Mitt Romney, again proving it is appropriate for all other candidates to drop out and unite behind Dr. Paul as the only viable conservative alternative to establishment Romney,” said Ron Paul 2012 National Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton.

“This is a clear two-man race and only two can beat Obama.  It also begs the question, ‘Which candidate will Republicans choose, status quo Romney or the candidate of authentic change, Ron Paul?’” asked Mr. Benton.

ORC International surveyed 1,021 adult Americans from January 11th to the 12th.  The error margin for this total sample is +/- 3.0 percentage points.  The sample includes 928 registered voters, with the margin of error for this group also +/- 3.0 percentage points.  Error margins for micro-targeting can range much higher.

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